Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Wilyer Abreu win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?
4%
Limited history-0.3pp
24h activity $127Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 20% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
20%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
20%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 10.5pp, from 19% to 30%, between 04:00 and 05:00 UTC.
11%
16 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
12%
16 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
12%
16 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
13%
16 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
30%
19 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
20%
20 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is $108. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu | 3.7% | -0.3pp | $336 | active |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 32.5% | -2.0pp | $527 | active |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 19.5% | -0.5pp | $1K | active |
| Cole Young | 0.3% | — | $333 | active |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.0% | — | $419 | active |
| Steven Kwan | 0.3% | — | $500 | active |
| Caleb Durbin | 0.7% | — | $204 | active |
| Taylor Walls | 3.0% | -28.5pp | $194 | active |
| Cody Bellinger | 11.7% | -5.4pp | $366 | active |
| Andrés Giménez | 0.7% | — | $260 | active |
| Cam Smith | 0.1% | — | $534 | active |
| Tanner Bibee | 0.5% | — | $439 | active |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 0.5% | — | $353 | active |
| Chase Meidroth | 0.5% | — | $347 | active |
| Marcus Semien | 0.0% | -1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jonah Heim | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.0% | -2.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Mauricio Dubón | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 0.0% | -3.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Carlos Santana | 0.0% | -2.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ty France | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Alex Bregman | 0.0% | -2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Matt Chapman | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Adolis García | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Dylan Moore | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 77.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Platinum Glove award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC