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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+20.9pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 100% to 100%, gradually rather than in one jump.
100%
17 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
100%
17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
100%
17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
100%
17 Oct 2026, 11:36 UTC
100%
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
100%
21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 50,000 | 7.5% | +1.0pp | $155K | active |
| ↑ 100,000 | 22.5% | +1.0pp | $83K | active |
| ↓ 70,000 | 32.5% | -4.0pp | $73K | active |
| ↓ 45,000 | 4.7% | -0.2pp | $240K | active |
| ↓ 60,000 | 14.5% | -1.0pp | $152K | active |
| ↑ 130,000 | 3.2% | +0.1pp | $169K | active |
| ↑ 90,000 | 58.5% | +6.0pp | $79K | active |
| ↓ 55,000 | 9.5% | — | $234K | active |
| ↓ 35,000 | 1.9% | — | $132K | active |
| ↓ 40,000 | 3.1% | +0.05pp | $91K | active |
| ↑ 250,000 | 0.5% | — | $170K | active |
| ↑ 140,000 | 2.6% | — | $144K | active |
| ↑ 95,000 | 37.5% | +2.0pp | $66K | active |
| ↓ 10,000 | 0.4% | -0.05pp | $108K | active |
| ↑ 110,000 | 9.5% | — | $113K | active |
| ↑ 1,000,000 | 0.1% | — | $380K | active |
| ↑ 180,000 | 1.3% | -0.1pp | $160K | active |
| ↓ 25,000 | 1.1% | — | $103K | active |
| ↑ 160,000 | 2.0% | — | $115K | active |
| ↓ 5,000 | 0.5% | — | $133K | active |
| ↓ 65,000 | 22.0% | -2.0pp | $75K | active |
| ↓ 30,000 | 1.8% | -0.1pp | $99K | active |
| ↓ 20,000 | 1.1% | — | $120K | active |
| ↑ 190,000 | 0.9% | -0.2pp | $134K | active |
| ↑ 120,000 | 5.5% | — | $104K | active |
| ↑ 200,000 | 0.9% | — | $128K | active |
| ↓ 15,000 | 0.7% | — | $105K | active |
| ↑ 150,000 | 2.0% | — | $142K | active |
| ↑ 170,000 | 1.1% | -0.1pp | $105K | active |
| ↑ 500,000 | 0.3% | — | $172K | active |
| ↓ 65,000 | 100.0% | +18.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 75,000 | 100.0% | +12.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 70,000 | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100.0% | -16.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 90,000 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 85,000 | 100.0% | +11.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 85,000 | 100.0% | +20.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 80,000 | 100.0% | +5.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 80,000 | 100.0% | +11.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 75,000 | 100.0% | +20.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 70,000 | 100.0% | +29.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 75,000 | 100.0% | +30.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100.0% | +10.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100.0% | +7.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100.0% | +2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 75,000 | 100.0% | -2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.