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Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July?

48%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+39.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 39.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

48%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 39.5pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
48.0%
No implied probability
52.0%
Liquidity
$370
Market Activity
$7K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
22 Jun 2026, 22:20 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 23 Jun 2026, 22:08 UTC

What this market asks

Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July?

Current market read

This market asks whether Bilibili Gaming will make a roster change before July 2026. The current market-implied probability is 48%. The market is about changes to the active League of Legends roster, not coach changes or single-match stand-ins.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability is near even at 48%.
  • 24h movement is sizable at 39.5, suggesting notable recent attention.
  • Trading activity is present, with 24h volume of 2541.963325 and liquidity of 370.4302.

Risks & uncertainties

  • Resolution depends on roster status by the stated deadline; the outcome is not known from the market data alone.
  • Liquidity is relatively limited at 370.4302, which can affect price movement.
  • The data does not provide a roster history or any confirmed roster-change event.

Resolution summary

The market resolves to Yes if any player joins or leaves Bilibili Gaming's active League of Legends roster by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The active roster is defined by the Bilibili Gaming Liquipedia page, and name changes or aliases for the same player do not count. Roster changes include official signings, transfers, benching to inactive or reserve, releases, retirements, or departures from the active lineup. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single match do not count. The primary resolution source is Liquipedia, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Bilibili Gaming's active League of Legends roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the Bilibili Gaming Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Bilibili_Gaming) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active roster consists of the following players: Bin, Wenbo, Xun, Knight, Yxl, Viper, and ON. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single match will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

Resolution source: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Bilibili_Gaming. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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