Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will CJ Carr be the first overall pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?
16%
Limited history+0.5pp
24h activity $274Closes 10 May 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 23% probability for this outcome, a -6.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
23%Recent probability movement (down 6.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
23%
24h Change
-6.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 8.0pp, from 26% to 18%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.
32%
22 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
32%
22 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
32%
22 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
32%
22 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
18%
25 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
23%
26 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 6.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning | 23.0% | -6.5pp | $12K | active |
| CJ Carr | 16.0% | +0.5pp | $14K | active |
| Dante Moore | 9.9% | -0.4pp | $13K | active |
| Byrum Brown | 2.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Darian Mensah | 16.4% | -0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Ellis Robinson IV | 2.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Drew Mestemaker | 5.8% | +0.6pp | $11K | active |
| David Stone | 4.7% | +0.4pp | $11K | active |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 14.1% | +1.0pp | $16K | active |
| Jordan Seaton | 3.5% | -0.7pp | $11K | active |
| LaNorris Sellers | 3.6% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Dylan Stewart | 3.5% | -0.7pp | $11K | active |
| John Mateer | 3.5% | -0.6pp | $11K | active |
| Leonard Moore | 2.9% | -1.3pp | $11K | active |
| Sam Leavitt | 3.5% | -0.6pp | $11K | active |
| Duce Robinson | 4.7% | — | $11K | active |
| Brendan Sorsby | 4.7% | — | $11K | active |
| Julian Sayin | 3.9% | -0.7pp | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 128.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is drafted first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2027 NFL Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by May 9, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 10 May 2027, 03:59 UTC