Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ciryl Gane become UFC champion in 2026?
98%
Limited history+34.4pp
24h activity $3KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 11% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
11%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
11%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 0.5pp from 11% to 11%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
11%
16 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
11%
16 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
11%
16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
11%
16 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
11%
18 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
11%
20 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 97.9% | +34.4pp | $7K | active |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 6.5% | +1.0pp | $3K | active |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 1.1% | -43.9pp | $242 | active |
| Kamaru Usman | 5.7% | +0.05pp | $503 | active |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0.5% | — | $252 | active |
| Manel Kape | 10.5% | — | $220 | active |
| Leon Edwards | 1.2% | +0.05pp | $371 | active |
| Diego Lopes | 5.2% | — | $896 | active |
| Paddy Pimblett | 13.8% | +0.7pp | $2K | active |
| Jiří Procházka | 2.6% | +0.05pp | $208 | active |
| Ian Machado Garry | 6.4% | -0.05pp | $586 | active |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 5.5% | -0.3pp | $707 | active |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 5.5% | -2.2pp | $592 | active |
| Sean O'Malley | 17.9% | +1.1pp | $418 | active |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 33.0% | — | $433 | active |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 6.3% | +0.2pp | $727 | active |
| Alexander Volkov | 10.8% | — | $674 | active |
| Belal Muhammad | 3.5% | -0.05pp | $469 | active |
| Cory Sandhagen | 7.2% | +6.0pp | $406 | active |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 3.0% | — | $461 | active |
| Aljamain Sterling | 6.5% | — | $230 | active |
| Dricus Du Plessis | 6.5% | -0.5pp | $435 | active |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 38.5% | — | $256 | active |
| Charles Oliveira | 8.0% | +0.5pp | $455 | active |
| Max Holloway | 6.3% | +0.2pp | $784 | active |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 5.0% | — | $416 | active |
| Yair Rodriguez | 5.5% | — | $465 | active |
| Sean Strickland | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC