Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
5%
Limited history-43.9pp
24h activity $4KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 89% probability for this outcome, a +40.9pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
89%Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
89%
24h Change
+40.9pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 48.8pp, from 49% to 98%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
48%
21 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
48%
21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
48%
21 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
48%
21 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
98%
24 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
89%
25 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 40.9pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $2K and 24h activity is $7K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 89.4% | +40.9pp | $2K | active |
| Movsar Evloev | 5.1% | -43.9pp | $2K | active |
| Jean Silva | 0.3% | -0.4pp | $2K | active |
| Kevin Vallejos | 0.1% | -0.2pp | $1K | active |
| Aljamain Sterling | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Youssef Zalal | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Lerone Murphy | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Steve Garcia | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Brian Ortega | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Arnold Allen | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Diego Lopes | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Yair Rodriguez | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
Probability sum: 95.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/athletes. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC