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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 41% probability for this outcome, a +0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
41%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
41%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 11.5pp, from 50% to 39%, between 04:00 and 05:00 UTC.
43%
6 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
42%
6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
42%
6 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
42%
6 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
39%
8 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
41%
10 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $176 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 40.5% | +0.5pp | $176 | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -12.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed. An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC