Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
95%
Limited history-0.9pp
24h activity $3KCloses 1 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 94% probability for this outcome, a +0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
94%Recent probability movement (up 0.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
94%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
63
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 42.5pp, from 88% to 45%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC.
88%
3 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC
45%
3 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC
46%
3 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC
46%
3 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC
68%
3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC
94%
6 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 94.6% | -0.9pp | $48K | active |
| December 31 | 97.3% | -0.2pp | $51K | active |
| November 15 | 93.5% | +0.5pp | $20K | active |
| October 31 | 0.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 15 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 16 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC