Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
12%
Limited history+4.9pp
24h activity $2KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 52% probability for this outcome, a +4.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
52%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
52%
24h Change
+4.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 12.0pp, from 43% to 55%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
43%
21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
43%
21 Oct 2026, 12:55 UTC
43%
21 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
43%
21 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
55%
21 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
52%
25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 4.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $23K and 24h activity is $373. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 11.9% | +4.9pp | $11K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 51.5% | +4.0pp | $23K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 66.5% | — | $25K | active |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC