Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
91%
Limited history+9.0pp
24h activity $200KCloses 8 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome, a +1.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
100%Recent probability movement (up 1.6pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
100%
24h Change
+1.6pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
20
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.5pp from 99% to 100%, gradually rather than in one jump.
99%
4 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC
99%
4 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC
100%
4 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC
100%
4 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC
100%
4 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC
100%
5 Nov 2026, 02:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 7 | 90.5% | +9.0pp | $46K | active |
| November 6 | 97.0% | +11.4pp | $49K | active |
| November 5 | 98.5% | +10.6pp | $52K | active |
| November 4 | 100.0% | +5.5pp | $66K | active |
| November 15 | 76.0% | +20.5pp | $53K | active |
| December 31 | 44.5% | +10.5pp | $79K | active |
| December 15 | 51.0% | +17.5pp | $81K | active |
| November 30 | 61.0% | +18.5pp | $58K | active |
| November 22 | 61.5% | +10.0pp | $41K | active |
| November 3 | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $51K | active |
| November 2 | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $43K | active |
| November 1 | 100.0% | +0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 31 | 100.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 100.0% | +1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 2 | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 25 | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 15 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 9 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| October 21 | 100.0% | +1.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 1 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 3 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 26 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| October 15 | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 22 | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 4 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| October 18 | 100.0% | +1.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 24 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 29 | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 30 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 27 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| October 27 | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 28 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 20 | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 24 | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 23 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 18 | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 15 | 100.0% | +1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 9 | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 30 | 100.0% | +0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 29 | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC