Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Iran leadership change by December 31?
12%
Limited history
24h activity $18KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 2% probability for this outcome, a -1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
2%Probability is barely changed (down 1.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
2%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.2pp from 3% to 2%, gradually rather than in one jump.
3%
27 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
3%
27 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
2%
27 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
2%
27 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
3%
30 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
2%
1 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2.4% | -1.0pp | $83K | active |
| December 31 | 11.5% | — | $147K | active |
| November 30 | 5.5% | -1.0pp | $96K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 23.5% | -1.0pp | $42K | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 22 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 13 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Nov 2026, 03:59 UTC