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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a -0.3pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Recent probability movement (down 0.3pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
-0.3pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.6pp from 4% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump.
4%
19 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
3%
19 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
3%
19 Oct 2026, 14:39 UTC
3%
19 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
3%
23 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
3%
23 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.3pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC