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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
-12.4pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
26
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 8.5pp, from 13% to 4%, between 06:00 and 07:00 UTC.
16%
29 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
15%
29 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
13%
29 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
13%
29 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
4%
30 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
0%
30 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://x.com/playcambria. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20M | 0.1% | -12.4pp | $9K | awaiting resolution |
| $200M | 0.1% | -0.5pp | $6K | awaiting resolution |
| $30M | 0.1% | -8.4pp | $6K | awaiting resolution |
| $40M | 0.1% | -4.5pp | $5K | awaiting resolution |
| $70M | 0.4% | -1.9pp | $5K | awaiting resolution |
| $50M | 0.1% | -1.4pp | $6K | awaiting resolution |
| $100M | 0.1% | -0.3pp | $6K | awaiting resolution |
| $150M | 0.6% | -0.05pp | $1K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.