Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
60%
-7.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 10 of 10 matching geopolitics markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +8.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
60%
+8.5ppVol $880Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Lucy nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +9.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
+9.5ppVol $350Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+4.5ppVol $176Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Juice Head nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
+3.0ppVol $110Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Fre nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
+4.5ppVol $102Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-6.0ppVol $71Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +18.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
42%
+18.0ppVol $62Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
39%
-7.5ppVol $52Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+9.0ppVol $2Closes 30 Sept 2026
Avg 24h move 1.5pp43 markets with notable movementCombined activity $19K
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