Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/CAD hit 1.55 (High) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
17%
-1.5ppVol $200Closes 31 Dec 2026
Category
Finance
Macro, rates, and equity benchmark probability signals from prediction markets.
586 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching finance markets.
Showing 253-288 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
7%
-7.5ppVol $190Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
18%
-5.0ppVol $167Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
20%
-1.5ppVol $159Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/KRW hit 1100 (Low) in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $155Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
HighFresh
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
Included because probability moved +1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
68%
+1.5ppVol $146Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
79%
Vol $143Closes 1 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
12%
+3.0ppVol $138Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/KRW hit 1300 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +14.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
13%
-14.5ppVol $132Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 2% and 3%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.1ppVol $131Closes 12 Feb 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.75% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
+5.0ppVol $131Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
7%
+0.5ppVol $129Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?
Low-confidence: move is +1.1pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
3%
+1.1ppVol $120Closes 10 Jan 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 4% and 5%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.2ppVol $115Closes 12 Feb 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/CAD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +25.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
6%
-25.5ppVol $111Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $110Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will RBC fail by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.05ppVol $106Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.4%?
Low-confidence: move is +3.6pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
1%
-3.6ppVol $101Closes 23 Jul 2026
Finance
HighFresh
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
22%
-1.5ppVol $101Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
83%
Vol $100Closes 31 Dec 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
Low-confidence: move is +1.3pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
23%
-1.3ppVol $99Closes 23 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/KRW hit 1200 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +26.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
13%
-26.0ppVol $92Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
WHOOP IPO before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
16%
+0.5ppVol $90Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?
Low-confidence: move is +1.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
5%
-1.4ppVol $87Closes 10 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/CAD hit 1.25 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
-2.5ppVol $86Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will BNY fail by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.4pp).
Stable consensus
2%
+0.4ppVol $84Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will KeyBank fail by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
3%
+0.5ppVol $84Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will UBS fail by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $83Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.6ppVol $79Closes 31 Dec 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
13%
Vol $77Closes 31 Dec 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.05ppVol $77Closes 29 Jul 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will Truist fail by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
3%
+0.2ppVol $74Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
12%
-1.0ppVol $74Closes 29 Jan 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
25%
Vol $71Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.7pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.7ppVol $70Closes 12 Feb 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
2%
+0.3ppVol $69Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 3.0pp102 markets with notable movementCombined activity $1.9M
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