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OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

20%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTCLow-confidence move-1.5pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

20%

24h Change

-1.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
20.0%
No implied probability
80.0%
Liquidity
$6K
Market Activity
$292K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange. OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD. Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange. If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed. If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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