Finance
MediumFresh
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
3%
-0.5ppVol $437Closes 31 Dec 2026
Category
Finance
Macro, rates, and equity benchmark probability signals from prediction markets.
586 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching finance markets.
Showing 217-252 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Finance
LowFresh
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 4.0% and 4.4%?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
22%
-3.0ppVol $420Closes 20 Jan 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
6%
Vol $415Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
11%
-0.1ppVol $404Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
HighFresh
US recession by end of 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
11%
-1.0ppVol $402Closes 31 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will South African inflation be between 2.6% and 2.9% in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.9pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
4%
+1.9ppVol $392Closes 20 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
10%
-1.5ppVol $386Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
8%
+1.0ppVol $373Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?
Low-confidence: move is +27.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
+27.4ppVol $361Closes 31 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0%?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
15%
+2.0ppVol $359Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will South African inflation be less than 2.6% in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
16%
+3.0ppVol $356Closes 20 Jan 2027
Finance
HighFresh
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
91%
+1.0ppVol $345Closes 29 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?
Low-confidence: move is +1.3pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
6%
+1.3ppVol $342Closes 20 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6%?
Low-confidence: move is +8.2pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
22%
+8.2ppVol $333Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 1.0% and 1.4%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
8%
+0.6ppVol $330Closes 20 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
-1.0ppVol $322Closes 23 Jul 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $318Closes 16 Jul 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
0%
-0.4ppVol $316Closes 16 Jul 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
2%
Vol $312Closes 16 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/KRW hit 1000 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
3%
-1.4ppVol $309Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 4.5%?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
6%
+5.5ppVol $304Closes 23 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Amazon 2026 capex above $220B?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
55%
-0.5ppVol $298Closes 30 Apr 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/KRW hit 1800 (High) in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
7%
Vol $289Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
4%
Vol $279Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/KRW hit 1350 (Low) in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $273Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will GBP/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
8%
Vol $265Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.8%?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
0%
-0.1ppVol $226Closes 16 Jul 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
0%
-0.3ppVol $226Closes 16 Jul 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will Santander fail by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
2%
+0.6ppVol $221Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
2%
-1.0ppVol $209Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.7pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.7ppVol $207Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 6.1%?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
0%
-0.2ppVol $202Closes 16 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/CAD hit 1.55 (High) in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
15%
Vol $200Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
7%
-7.5ppVol $190Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
26%
+1.0ppVol $184Closes 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
18%
-5.0ppVol $167Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 3.0pp95 markets with notable movementCombined activity $2.2M
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