Politics

Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.1%
No implied probability: 99.8%
Liquidity: $474K
Lifetime volume: $494K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 29 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Éric Zemmour	1.1%	+0.3pp	$181K	active
François Baroin	0.1%	—	$464K	active
Sébastien Lecornu	0.9%	—	$200K	active
Raphaël Glucksmann	1.9%	+0.1pp	$228K	active
Édouard Philippe	24.5%	—	$160K	active
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	14.5%	—	$179K	active
François Hollande	3.3%	-0.1pp	$176K	active
Gabriel Attal	4.3%	—	$200K	active
Marine Le Pen	33.4%	-0.7pp	$203K	active
Manuel Bompard	0.1%	—	$570K	active
Sarah Knafo	1.1%	—	$164K	active
Carole Delga	0.1%	—	$592K	active
Gérald Darmanin	0.1%	—	$321K	active
François Asselineau	0.1%	—	$539K	active
Jordan Bardella	2.5%	—	$163K	active
David Lisnard	2.6%	-0.1pp	$154K	active
Bernard Cazeneuve	0.1%	—	$304K	active
Dominique de Villepin	1.8%	—	$168K	active
Mathilde Panot	0.1%	—	$586K	active
Yaël Braun-Pivet	0.1%	—	$572K	active
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	0.1%	—	$602K	active
Valérie Pécresse	0.1%	—	$582K	active
Jean Castex	0.3%	—	$142K	active
Élisabeth Borne	0.1%	—	$571K	active
Michel Barnier	0.1%	—	$574K	active
Olivier Faure	0.1%	—	$379K	active
Marine Tondelier	0.1%	—	$470K	active
François Bayrou	0.1%	—	$596K	active
François Ruffin	0.1%	—	$474K	active
Laurent Wauquiez	0.1%	—	$549K	active
Xavier Bertrand	0.3%	—	$104K	active
Fabien Roussel	0.1%	—	$561K	active
Ségolène Royal	0.1%	—	$473K	active
Juan Branco	0.1%	—	$143K	active
Bruno Retailleau	1.9%	—	$229K	active
Clémentine Autain	0.1%	—	$580K	active
Clémence Guetté	0.1%	—	$593K	active
Karim Bouamrane	0.1%	—	$481K	active
Yannick Jadot	0.1%	—	$474K	active
Marion Maréchal	0.1%	—	$445K	active
Lucie Castets	0.1%	—	$478K	active

Probability sum: 98.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC