Politics

Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

Market activity is moderate — moves should be interpreted with standard caution.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

Not enough history

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.6%
No implied probability: 99.5%
Liquidity: $47K
Market Activity: $122K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 15 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC

Verify on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 15 Jul 2026, 10:58 UTC

AI brief may be stale. Current market metrics are shown above.

What this market asks

Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Current market read

AI summary is unavailable because stored summary data is older than the latest market metrics. Current market metrics are shown above.

AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC

Limited history-0.3pp

Vol $20KCloses 30 Apr 2027

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
François Baroin	0.6%	—	$47K	active
Clémentine Autain	0.3%	—	$215K	active
Karim Bouamrane	0.8%	—	$117K	active
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	0.3%	—	$138K	active
François Bayrou	0.3%	-0.1pp	$147K	active
Yaël Braun-Pivet	0.3%	-0.1pp	$252K	active
Michel Barnier	0.3%	-0.3pp	$402K	active
François Ruffin	0.3%	-0.1pp	$283K	active
Marion Maréchal	0.3%	—	$131K	active
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	12.5%	—	$207K	active
Olivier Faure	0.3%	—	$178K	active
Gérald Darmanin	0.3%	-0.1pp	$354K	active
Fabien Roussel	0.3%	-0.1pp	$230K	active
François Asselineau	0.3%	—	$307K	active
Mathilde Panot	0.3%	—	$199K	active
Manuel Bompard	0.3%	—	$189K	active
Bernard Cazeneuve	0.7%	—	$217K	active
Yannick Jadot	0.1%	—	$141K	active
Lucie Castets	0.1%	—	$141K	active
Jordan Bardella	3.7%	+0.3pp	$150K	active
Xavier Bertrand	0.3%	—	$248K	active
Dominique de Villepin	1.8%	—	$159K	active
Marine Le Pen	31.1%	+0.3pp	$290K	active
François Hollande	2.6%	—	$174K	active
Juan Branco	0.3%	-0.1pp	$136K	active
Sébastien Lecornu	0.8%	—	$152K	active
Marine Tondelier	0.3%	—	$197K	active
Carole Delga	0.3%	—	$241K	active
Ségolène Royal	0.3%	—	$246K	active
Jean Castex	0.3%	-0.1pp	$133K	active
David Lisnard	1.4%	+0.05pp	$109K	active
Élisabeth Borne	0.3%	—	$217K	active
Sarah Knafo	0.9%	—	$173K	active
Raphaël Glucksmann	1.9%	—	$177K	active
Édouard Philippe	26.5%	—	$218K	active
Gabriel Attal	2.5%	-0.1pp	$204K	active
Éric Zemmour	0.8%	—	$147K	active
Bruno Retailleau	3.1%	—	$193K	active
Laurent Wauquiez	0.3%	—	$98K	active
Clémence Guetté	0.4%	—	$445K	active
Valérie Pécresse	0.3%	-0.1pp	$110K	active

Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.