Finance
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Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?
6%
Limited history
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. No 24h direction is visible. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is very low and 24h volume is $0. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
6%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0–3.4% | — | 0.0pp | $0 | active |
| 4.5%+ | 6.0% | -0.5pp | $953 | active |
| 1.5–1.9% | 1.1% | — | $714 | active |
| <1.0% | 0.3% | — | $315 | active |
| 2.5–2.9% | 23.0% | +2.0pp | $701 | active |
| 3.5–3.9% | 31.6% | -1.1pp | $441 | active |
Current implied probability
0%Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: Low10%
0%
32%
23%
1%
| 2.0–2.4% | 1.9% | — | $591 | active |
| 4.0-4.4% | 9.5% | — | $2K | active |
| 1.0–1.4% | 0.7% | — | $646 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.