Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
4%
Limited history+3.1pp
24h activity $69Closes 3 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Click Bishop | 4.4% | +3.1pp | $10K | active |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 4.7% | -0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Bill Walker | 0.3% | — | $12K | active |
| Mary Peltola | 0.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Bernadette Wilson | 26.5% | +0.5pp | $2K | active |
| Tom Begich | 53.0% | — | $4K | active |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 0.6% | — | $16K | active |
| James Parkin | 0.3% | — | $14K | active |
| Adam Crum | 0.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Matt Heilala | 0.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Treg Taylor | 9.8% | +1.3pp | $10K | active |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Matt Claman | 0.3% | — | $11K | active |
| David Bronson | 6.4% | -0.1pp | $2K | active |
| Shelley Hughes | 0.1% | — | $12K | active |
| Edna DeVries | 0.1% | — | $12K | active |
| Hank Kroll | 0.1% | — | $12K | active |
| Bruce Walden | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Lesil McGuire | 0.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Jessica Faircloth | 0.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Gregg Brelsford | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 107.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
4%
5%
0%
0%
27%
53%