Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
2%
Limited history
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
17%Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
17%
24h Change
-21.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
28
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 21.5pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $3K and 24h activity is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 |
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
2%
| 1.6% |
| -0.4pp |
| $29K |
| active |
| August 31 | 17.0% | -21.5pp | $3K | active |
| December 31 | 56.0% | -3.0pp | $4K | active |
| September 30 | 47.5% | +11.0pp | $879 | active |
| January 9 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| January 31 | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 8 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
56%
48%