Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?
8%
Limited history-1.3pp
24h activity $528Closes —
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 2% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
2%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Comey | 8.1% | -1.3pp | $18K | active |
| Anthony Fauci | 9.5% | +0.1pp | $37K | active |
| James Clapper | 10.5% | +1.0pp | $9K | active |
| John Brennan | 21.0% | -0.5pp | $10K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 2.5% | — | $31K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 2.5% | +0.1pp | $30K | active |
| Brandon Johnson | 10.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Tom Homan | 5.0% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Barack Obama | 2.4% | — | $31K | active |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 11.0% | — | $13K | active |
| Adam Schiff | 2.5% | — | $18K | active |
| Joe Biden | 1.1% | — | $30K | active |
| Lisa Cook | 3.3% | — | $13K | active |
| Letitia James | 8.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Bill Clinton | 1.3% | — | $16K | active |
| Loretta Lynch | 7.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Pam Bondi | 1.7% | -0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 4.8% | — | $17K | active |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 20.5% | — | $38 | active |
| Lee Jun-seok | 11.2% | -0.9pp | $33 | active |
| Kash Patel | 1.2% | -0.1pp | $10K | active |
| John Kerry | 1.4% | — | $12K | active |
| Susan Rice | 9.0% | -1.5pp | $793 | active |
| Candace Owens | 7.1% | — | $36 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
8%
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11%
21%
2%
11%