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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 69% probability for this outcome, a +28.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
69%Probability moved up 28.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
69%
24h Change
+28.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 28.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 68.5% | +28.0pp | $105K | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -1.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 15 | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 15 | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 9 | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 8 | 0.0% | -36.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 10 | 0.0% | -2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 15 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 24 | 0.0% | -8.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 14 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 24 | 0.0% | -3.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 8 | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 11 | 0.0% | -3.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 7 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 12 | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 13 | 0.0% | -0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
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No closely related markets found in the current catalog.
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