Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Iran leadership change by August 31?
1%
Limited history-0.05pp
24h activity $20KCloses 31 Aug 2026
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Current implied probability
5%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
5%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $59K | active |
| October 31 | 7.5% | — | $66K | active |
| August 22 | 0.3% | — | $39K | active |
| November 30 | 10.5% | — | $48K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 25.5% | — | $55K | active |
| December 31 | 16.5% | — | $264K | active |
| September 30 | 4.5% | — | $115K | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 13 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
8%
0%
11%
26%
17%