Politics
MediumMarket data current
Iran leadership change by July 31?
1%
Limited history-0.5pp
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Current implied probability
6%Probability moved down 2.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
6%
24h Change
-2.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Why this may have moved
Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 1.4% | -0.5pp | $132K | active |
| September 30 | 11.5% | -1.0pp | $48K | active |
| August 31 | 5.5% | -2.0pp | $37K | active |
| December 31 | 20.5% | -3.0pp | $82K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 37.0% | -2.5pp | $52K | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 |
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
12%
21%
37%
| resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 13 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.