Politics
HighFresh
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
53%
+1.0ppVol $1KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 209 matching politics markets.
Showing 73-108 of 209 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
51%
Vol $1KCloses 4 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
41%
-1.5ppVol $1KCloses 4 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
47%
+2.0ppVol $1KCloses —
Politics
MediumFresh
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
40%
Vol $1KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
43%
Vol $1KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved +7.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
+7.5ppVol $956Closes 3 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-03 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
65%
Vol $868Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
48%
Vol $858Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
-1.5ppVol $837Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
-3.0ppVol $827Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
65%
Vol $825Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-2.0ppVol $796Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $740Closes 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?
Included because probability moved +1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
43%
+1.5ppVol $710Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-08 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
59%
+1.0ppVol $701Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
-6.0ppVol $697Closes 18 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved -5.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
41%
-5.5ppVol $687Closes 20 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
Included because probability moved +1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
48%
+1.5ppVol $687Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
-6.5ppVol $670Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the WI-01 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
61%
Vol $652Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-3.0ppVol $629Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-04 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
38%
-3.5ppVol $628Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Kansas in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
39%
-2.5ppVol $615Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $605Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
54%
Vol $576Closes 17 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
52%
+5.0ppVol $562Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
42%
Vol $541Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
43%
Vol $541Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Low-confidence: move is +1.7pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
43%
-1.7ppVol $531Closes —
Politics
HighFresh
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
65%
-1.0ppVol $531Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
46%
+0.5ppVol $513Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
53%
-3.5ppVol $497Closes 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
65%
-0.5ppVol $485Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
SPLC found guilty in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
59%
-1.5ppVol $477Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
+6.5ppVol $476Closes 4 Nov 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp384 markets with notable movementCombined activity $7.0M
Back to homepage analytics