Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
43%
-1.0ppVol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 212 matching politics markets.
Showing 37-72 of 212 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
51%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
37%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
50%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
46%
Vol $6KCloses 4 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
-1.0ppVol $5KCloses 17 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $5KCloses 4 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
53%
Vol $5KCloses 17 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
57%
-1.0ppVol $5KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit South Carolina in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
56%
-0.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
45%
Vol $5KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $5KCloses 17 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
64%
Vol $5KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Included because probability moved +1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
40%
+1.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +8.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
-8.5ppVol $4KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
54%
-3.0ppVol $4KCloses —
Politics
LowFresh
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
-5.0ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
57%
-2.5ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
42%
+0.5ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
57%
Vol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Idaho in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
-2.5ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
40%
Vol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
52%
-0.5ppVol $3KCloses 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
42%
Vol $2KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
50%
Vol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
Included because probability moved -19.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
48%
-19.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
65%
+1.5ppVol $2KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+2.0ppVol $2KCloses 4 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
59%
-0.5ppVol $2KCloses 4 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
55%
-1.0ppVol $2KCloses —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
Low-confidence: move is +17.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
63%
+17.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Jan 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
43%
Vol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
60%
-0.3ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
64%
-4.5ppVol $2KCloses 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
48%
+0.5ppVol $1KCloses 4 Nov 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $26.3M
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