Politics
MediumFresh
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.2pp.
High activity
2%
-0.2ppVol $14KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 154 matching politics markets.
Showing 109-144 of 154 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
HighFresh
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
13%
+2.0ppVol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
81%
+0.5ppVol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $14KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
15%
-1.0ppVol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $14KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Included because probability moved +9.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
76%
+9.0ppVol $13KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.2ppVol $13KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
15%
-1.0ppVol $13KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-1.5ppVol $13KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $13KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $13KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $13KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $13KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $13KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +18.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
47%
+18.0ppVol $12KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +4.3pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
+4.3ppVol $12KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved -2.6pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
31%
-2.6ppVol $12KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
3%
-0.1ppVol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Included because probability moved +1.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
+1.1ppVol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included because probability moved +4.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
76%
+4.5ppVol $11KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.3pp.
High activity
1%
-0.3ppVol $11KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp387 markets with notable movementCombined activity $370.8M
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