Finance
LowFresh
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
4%
-0.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Finance
Macro, rates, and equity benchmark probability signals from prediction markets.
586 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching finance markets.
Showing 37-72 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Finance
MediumFresh
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
48%
+0.5ppVol $18KCloses 9 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
ByteDance IPO before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
7%
Vol $18KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
18%
Vol $17KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
91%
-1.0ppVol $16KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.05pp.
High activity
2%
+0.05ppVol $16KCloses 29 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
14%
+2.5ppVol $15KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.2pp.
High activity
9%
+0.2ppVol $15KCloses 9 Dec 2026
Finance
LowStale data
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.5ppVol $15KCloses 9 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will GBP/USD hit 1.60 (High) in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
8%
Vol $15KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
3%
-0.1ppVol $14KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.6pp.
High activity
4%
+0.6ppVol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
39%
Vol $13KCloses 31 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will South African inflation be between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
11%
-4.5ppVol $12KCloses 20 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 12 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
7%
+1.5ppVol $12KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
47%
-0.5ppVol $12KCloses 12 Jan 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $11KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
73%
-1.5ppVol $10KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
29%
-0.3ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
28%
+0.3ppVol $10KCloses 12 Jan 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
6%
-0.1ppVol $9KCloses 12 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
3%
-0.05ppVol $9KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
19%
Vol $9KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $8KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Finance
HighFresh
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
15%
-1.0ppVol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
36%
-0.05ppVol $8KCloses 12 Jan 2027
Finance
LowFresh
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
16%
Vol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Finance
MediumFresh
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
MediumFresh
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
-1.0ppVol $7KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Avg 24h move 3.2pp107 markets with notable movementCombined activity $33.4M
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