Finance
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?
27%
Limited history+8.0pp
24h activity $63Closes 29 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
2%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is $59. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >2.5% | 27.0% | +8.0pp | $735 | active |
| 0.5–1.0% | 1.8% | -0.1pp | $1K | active |
| <0.5% | 4.7% | +0.6pp | $922 | active |
| 2.0–2.5% | 30.5% | — | $782 | active |
| 1.5–2.0% | 29.5% | -0.5pp | $757 | active |
| 1.0–1.5% | 8.8% | +0.3pp | $818 | active |
Probability sum: 102.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 29 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
27%
5%
31%
30%
9%