Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
4%
Limited history+0.7pp
24h activity $285Closes 20 Sept 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
8%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
8%
24h Change
+1.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $19K and 24h activity is $38. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <280 | 3.9% | +0.7pp | $30K | active |
| 280–294 | 4.3% | +1.0pp | $25K | active |
| 325–339 | 34.5% | -0.5pp | $3K | active |
| 310–324 | 19.1% | -1.6pp | $25K | active |
| 340–354 | 22.5% | -1.0pp | $24K | active |
| 355+ | 11.5% | — | $24K | active |
| 295–309 | 7.5% | +1.1pp | $19K | active |
Probability sum: 103.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
4%
4%
35%
19%
23%
12%