Finance
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will South African inflation be between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026?
22%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $15KCloses 20 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
9%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
9%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4-4.7% | 22.1% | — | $2K | active |
| >5.0% | 8.8% | — | $2K | active |
| 4.7-5.0% | 9.5% | -0.3pp | $2K | active |
| 3.8-4.1% | 13.9% | — | $2K | active |
| 4.1-4.4% | 29.6% | — | $1K | active |
| 2.6-2.9% | 0.3% | — | $1K | active |
| 3.5-3.8% | 4.1% | -0.6pp | $962 | active |
| 2.9-3.2% | 3.1% | -0.05pp | $2K | active |
| 3.2-3.5% | 3.0% | -0.1pp | $793 | active |
| <2.6% | 0.3% | — | $1K | active |
Probability sum: 94.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report. The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
22%
10%
14%
30%
0%
4%