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Finance

Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026?

10%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCLow-confidence move+2.4pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

10%

24h Change

+2.4pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.4pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $1K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
10.3%
No implied probability
89.7%
Liquidity
$1K
Market Activity
$522
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report. The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 20 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC

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