EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

29%Synced 8 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCLow-confidence move+1.0pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

29%

24h Change

+1.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

10

0%25%50%75%100%16:0018:0021:0023:001:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
28.5%
No implied probability
71.5%
Liquidity
$8K
Market Activity
$13K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
8 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Move attribution

Not checked yet

Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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