EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

3%Synced 8 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCMeaningful move-3.1pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 3.1pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

3%

24h Change

-3.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

10

0%25%50%75%100%16:0018:0021:0023:001:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
3.4%
No implied probability
96.6%
Liquidity
$13K
Market Activity
$4K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
8 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Move attribution

Not checked yet

Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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