Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Brandon Nakashima win the 2026 Men's US Open?
3%
Limited history
24h activity $150KCloses 13 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
13
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | 2.5% | — | $88K | active |
| Alexander Blockx | 0.3% | — | $77K | active |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 34.5% | +6.0pp | $93K | active |
| Learner Tien | 0.7% | — | $55K | active |
| Alex de Minaur | 0.8% | — | $93K | active |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1.9% | -0.9pp | $55K | active |
| Karen Khachanov | 0.1% | — | $84K | active |
| Tommy Paul | 0.7% | — | $64K | active |
| Rafael Jodar | 4.8% | — | $46K | active |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 0.1% | — | $41K | active |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0.4% | — | $126K | active |
| Alexander Zverev | 23.9% | +1.6pp | $56K | active |
| Ben Shelton | 8.8% | +1.2pp | $41K | active |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0.1% | — | $58K | active |
| Alex Michelsen | 0.1% | — | $94K | active |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0.1% | — | $39K | active |
| Daniil Medvedev | 3.9% | -0.3pp | $44K | active |
| Andrey Rublev | 0.6% | -0.3pp | $51K | active |
| Luciano Darderi | 0.1% | — | $63K | active |
| Flavio Cobolli | 1.9% | -0.5pp | $49K | active |
| Jaume Munar | 0.1% | — | $52K | active |
| Taylor Fritz | 7.3% | -0.6pp | $52K | active |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $23K | active |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 4.0% | -0.4pp | $47K | active |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $48K | active |
| Ignacio Buse | 0.1% | — | $88K | active |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 0.1% | — | $82K | active |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1.3% | +0.05pp | $46K | active |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0.1% | — | $116K | active |
| Jakub Mensik | 2.1% | -0.7pp | $54K | active |
| Zizou Bergs | 0.1% | — | $80K | active |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0.3% | — | $41K | active |
| Alexander Bublik | 0.8% | — | $46K | active |
| Mariano Navone | 0.1% | — | $47K | active |
| Gael Monfils | 0.1% | — | $183K | active |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0.1% | — | $78K | active |
| Arthur Fils | 0.0% | -7.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0.1% | -0.3pp | $310K | awaiting resolution |
| Casper Ruud | 0.1% | — | $183K | awaiting resolution |
| Ugo Humbert | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Novak Djokovic | 0.0% | -9.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Joao Fonseca | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Jannik Sinner | 0.0% | -35.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jack Draper | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Holger Rune | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Nuno Borges | 0.1% | — | $385K | awaiting resolution |
| Sebastian Baez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 103.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 13 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
3%
0%
35%
1%
1%
2%