Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
26%
Limited history
24h activity $5KCloses 13 Sept 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
4%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
4%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 25.5% | — | $19K | active |
| Katie Boulter | 0.1% | — | $33K | active |
| Maya Joint | 0.1% | — | $31K | active |
| Xiyu Wang | 0.1% | — | $30K | active |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 0.6% | — | $29K | active |
| Diana Shnaider | 0.9% | -0.1pp | $34K | active |
| Iga Swiatek | 12.5% | -1.0pp | $26K | active |
| Daria Kasatkina | 0.1% | — | $30K | active |
| Jelena Ostapenko | 0.4% | — | $20K | active |
| Emma Navarro | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $22K | active |
| Tereza Valentova | 0.5% | — | $20K | active |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0.7% | -0.1pp | $33K | active |
| Anastasia Potapova | 0.3% | — | $24K | active |
| Emma Raducanu | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $19K | active |
| Karolina Muchova | 2.3% | -0.1pp | $26K | active |
| Linda Noskova | 3.1% | -0.1pp | $32K | active |
| Jessica Pegula | 4.4% | — | $36K | active |
| Mirra Andreeva | 6.0% | -0.05pp | $27K | active |
| Barbora Krejcikova | 1.3% | +0.05pp | $26K | active |
| Qinwen Zheng | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $28K | active |
| Naomi Osaka | 7.2% | -0.2pp | $29K | active |
| Alexandra Eala | 3.8% | -0.05pp | $29K | active |
| Sofia Kenin | 0.1% | — | $21K | active |
| Donna Vekic | 0.4% | — | $8K | active |
| Elena Rybakina | 9.9% | +0.2pp | $22K | active |
| Belinda Bencic | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $32K | active |
| Amanda Anisimova | 2.5% | -0.05pp | $26K | active |
| Marketa Vondrousova | 0.1% | — | $19K | active |
| Marie Bouzkova | 0.5% | — | $20K | active |
| Elise Mertens | 0.6% | -0.05pp | $24K | active |
| Ashlyn Krueger | 0.3% | — | $16K | active |
| Coco Gauff | 8.8% | — | $29K | active |
| Victoria Mboko | 0.1% | — | $23K | active |
| Beatriz Haddad Maia | 0.1% | — | $34K | active |
| Paula Badosa | 0.3% | — | $18K | active |
| Elina Svitolina | 2.4% | -0.05pp | $21K | active |
| Madison Keys | 1.3% | -0.05pp | $23K | active |
| Jasmine Paolini | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $27K | active |
| Clara Tauson | 0.3% | — | $23K | active |
| Dayana Yastremska | 0.1% | — | $20K | active |
Probability sum: 100.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 13 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
26%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%