Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
12%
Limited history+5.5pp
24h activity $12KCloses 31 Aug 2026
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Current implied probability
54%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
54%
24h Change
-3.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
75
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 3.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $656 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31, 2026 | 11.5% | +5.5pp | $9K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 39.0% | +8.5pp | $7K | active |
| August 21, 2026 | 1.3% | -0.8pp | $9K | active |
| December 31, 2026 | 83.5% | — | $17K | active |
| October 31, 2026 | 47.0% | +3.5pp | $1K | active |
| September 15, 2026 | 19.5% | +2.5pp | $2K | active |
| November 30, 2026 | 53.5% | -3.5pp | $656 | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 14, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 7, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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