EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

43%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCLow-confidence move-16.5pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.

Signal: Low

Current

43%

24h Change

-16.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

24

0%25%50%75%100%22:004:0010:0015:0021:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 16.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
43.0%
No implied probability
57.0%
Liquidity
$7K
Market Activity
$3K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

Move attribution

Not checked yet

Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC

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