Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Donald Trump visit Oregon in 2026?
21%
Limited history+0.2pp
Lifetime volume $20KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 48% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
48%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
48%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 21.1% | +0.2pp | $218 | active |
| New Hampshire | 59.5% | -0.5pp | $73 | active |
| Mississippi | 26.5% | -0.5pp | $85 | active |
| Vermont | 20.5% | -1.5pp | $115 | active |
| Wyoming | 32.0% | -0.5pp | $109 | active |
| Idaho | 41.0% | -0.5pp | $194 | active |
| Illinois | 94.5% | +1.0pp | $96 | active |
| Washington | 25.5% | -1.0pp | $163 | active |
| Hawaii | 14.5% | — | $163 | active |
| Kansas | 36.5% | -0.5pp | $155 | active |
| Alabama | 54.0% | -0.5pp | $94 | active |
| Utah | 24.0% | +0.5pp | $104 | active |
| Minnesota | 51.0% | +1.0pp | $90 | active |
| Nebraska | 47.0% | — | $62 | active |
| West Virginia | 42.5% | — | $46 | active |
| Rhode Island | 24.5% | -0.5pp | $77 | active |
| Colorado | 26.5% | +0.5pp | $82 | active |
| Arkansas | 51.5% | -1.0pp | $68 | active |
| New Mexico | 30.5% | — | $103 | active |
| Montana | 45.0% | +0.5pp | $59 | active |
| Indiana | 42.5% | -3.0pp | $41 | active |
| Maine | 43.5% | +1.5pp | $78 | active |
| Louisiana | 51.0% | -1.0pp | $25 | active |
| Massachusetts | 35.5% | — | $127 | active |
| Oklahoma | 47.5% | — | $98 | active |
| Missouri | 40.0% | — | $74 | active |
| Florida | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Maryland | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Texas | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Georgia | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| North Carolina | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Iowa | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Michigan | 100.0% | +0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| Arizona | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Alaska | 100.0% | +24.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| North Dakota | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| South Dakota | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Virginia | 100.0% | +13.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| South Carolina | 100.0% | +2.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| New Jersey | 100.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| California | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| New York | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Pennsylvania | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Nevada | 100.0% | +1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Wisconsin | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Connecticut | 100.0% | +4.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ohio | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Kentucky | 100.0% | +1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Tennessee | 100.0% | +17.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Delaware | 100.0% | -2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
21%
60%
27%
21%
32%
41%