Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
USDS depeg by December 31?
7%
Limited history+1.0pp
24h activity $20Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
11%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
11%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDS | 7.0% | +1.0pp | $196 | active |
| USDTb | 9.0% | -4.0pp | $61 | active |
| USD0 | 18.0% | -7.0pp | $594 | active |
| USDC | 1.3% | — | $3K | active |
| USD1 | 10.5% | — | $428 | active |
| USDE | 6.8% | +1.2pp | $1K | active |
| DAI | 4.5% | — | $325 | active |
| GHO | 4.0% | — | $6K | active |
| PYUSD | 4.5% | — | $1K | active |
| USR | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for USD1-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’26 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). A 24-hour period of USD1 below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2026 will count. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the USD1-USD “High” prices currently available at https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSD1USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Pyth USD1-USD. If Pyth stops having the necessary USD1 information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USD1 was below 98 cents for 24 hours or more may be used to resolve this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
7%
9%
18%
1%
7%
5%