EAEventAlpha
Crypto

DAI depeg by December 31?

6%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTCLow-confidence move-1.5pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

6%

24h Change

-1.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

8

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $1K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
6.0%
No implied probability
94.0%
Liquidity
$1K
Market Activity
$3K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for DAI-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’26 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). A 24-hour period of DAI below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2026 will count. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the DAI-USD “High” prices currently available at https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3ADAIUSD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Pyth DAI-USD. If Pyth stops having the necessary DAI information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether DAI was below 98 cents for 24 hours or more may be used to resolve this market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.