Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?
0%
Limited history
Loading the latest market intelligence…
This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
50%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
7
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 0.1% | -0.8pp |
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
Current implied probability
50%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: Low| $12K |
| active |
| December 31 | 50.0% | — | $1 | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 15 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC