Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current
1%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, the United States government, and relevant courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
No closely related markets found.
No closely related markets found in the current catalog.
Explore more Politics marketsSource event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 0.8% | +0.5pp | $10K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 15 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (up 0.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.