Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
35%
Limited history+12.5pp
24h activity $21KCloses 1 Oct 2026
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Current implied probability
6%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
6%
24h Change
-10.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 10.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is $572. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 35.0% | +12.5pp | $11K | active |
| September 15 | 6.0% | -10.0pp | $1K | active |
| October 31 | 65.5% | -8.0pp | $3K | active |
| November 30 | 91.5% | +4.0pp | $5K | active |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 16 Sept 2026, 03:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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