Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
2%
Limited history-0.6pp
24h activity $17KCloses 31 Aug 2026
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Current implied probability
10%Probability is barely changed (down 2.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
10%
24h Change
-2.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | 1.9% | -0.6pp | $194K | active |
| September 30 | 9.5% | -2.0pp | $95K | active |
| December 31 | 18.0% | — | $73K | active |
| April 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 22 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
2%
18%