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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 50% probability for this outcome, a +3.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
50%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
50%
24h Change
+3.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 3.5pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $4 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 50.0% | +3.5pp | $4 | active |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -3.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -49.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
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No closely related markets found in the current catalog.
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