Politics
MediumFresh
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
51%
+0.5ppVol $18Closes 31 Dec 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 31 of 211 matching politics markets.
Showing 181-211 of 211 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
49%
Vol $15Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+4.0ppVol $9Closes 8 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $9Closes 17 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
39%
-0.5ppVol $8Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
60%
-1.5ppVol $8Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
48%
+0.5ppVol $7Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
54%
-1.5ppVol $6Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
44%
-2.5ppVol $6Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+1.5ppVol $5Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
55%
-1.0ppVol $5Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +6.3pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
37%
-6.3ppVol $5Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
+2.5ppVol $5Closes 1 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
53%
Vol $5Closes 17 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
52%
-0.5ppVol $5Closes 1 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
52%
-1.0ppVol $5Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
44%
+0.5ppVol $5Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
52%
+2.0ppVol $4Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the US federal government take a stake in Unusual Machines?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
-3.5ppVol $3Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
-1.5ppVol $2Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
47%
+0.5ppVol $2Closes 1 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Included because probability moved +2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
47%
+2.5ppVol $1Closes 3 Jan 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
53%
-0.5ppVol $0Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
38%
-5.0ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
53%
Vol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Oklahoma in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
44%
Vol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Massachusetts in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+3.0ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Missouri in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+1.0ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
44%
-2.0ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Louisiana in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
-3.5ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Utah in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
50%
-0.5ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp378 markets with notable movementCombined activity $275K
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