Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
+6.0ppVol $443Closes 4 Nov 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 208 matching politics markets.
Showing 109-144 of 208 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
50%
Vol $440Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
64%
Vol $426Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.7pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
-7.7ppVol $423Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
55%
Vol $398Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +1.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
44%
-1.4ppVol $380Closes 11 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
+1.0ppVol $366Closes 23 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
+7.0ppVol $350Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-5.0ppVol $318Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
55%
Vol $313Closes 7 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+2.0ppVol $307Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
51%
+0.5ppVol $300Closes 27 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
48%
Vol $300Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
42%
+0.5ppVol $281Closes —
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
58%
+0.5ppVol $281Closes 30 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
-5.5ppVol $274Closes 17 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
60%
+3.0ppVol $258Closes 23 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
38%
Vol $257Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-5.5ppVol $240Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
51%
+0.5ppVol $236Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Alabama in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
+6.5ppVol $230Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
59%
-8.0ppVol $226Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
59%
Vol $206Closes 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
60%
+0.5ppVol $176Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Another pandemic before GTA VI?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
51%
Vol $165Closes 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Included because probability moved +1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
+1.5ppVol $157Closes 30 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $150Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
+3.0ppVol $132Closes 18 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
50%
Vol $131Closes 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Vesselin Dimitrov win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
43%
+0.5ppVol $123Closes 30 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
-1.0ppVol $122Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Zohran Mamdani release another song?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
43%
Vol $116Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +3.9pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
-3.9ppVol $106Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Nebraska in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
47%
Vol $106Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
52%
+1.0ppVol $101Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
55%
+1.0ppVol $97Closes 30 Jun 2027
Avg 24h move 1.7pp387 markets with notable movementCombined activity $2.3M
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